This is a very flawed and misleading analysis:

Firstly, “Hysteria”, “panic” etc. are necessary attributes when dealing with a pandemic — it is VITAL to self-quarantine. Ironically, the author proposes not to panic when panic (by extreme self-quarantining) is the only remedy for this virus and what worked for SK, China, and Japan (and hopefully soon, New York City).

Secondly, using “bell curve” nomenclature when labeling the growth and decline of the daily case count is so incorrect in this context it’s purely embarrassing. Bell curves occur when a sample is normally distributed — when scrutinizing exponential growth rates of pandemics we do not care about the shape of a graph be it a bell, fin, tent, etc. We just care about limiting the slope of the curve as much as possible. Ironically also, the author points out that the shape of the curve will eventually come down…yes, duh. Only IF people excessively quarantine. Panic/hysteria — i.e. treating this pandemic seriously — is obviously warranted. The rate of daily case count growth slowing down has absolutely nothing to do with bell curves. Good Lord.

The positive out of all this is that it is vastly exposing the people who actually have a firm grasp on math and statistics and the people who NN Taleb rightly calls charlatans. If you thought this article made any sense, you have some brushing up to do.

Economist, Ocean Lifeguard, Founder of Austere Capital Advisory (https://austere.capital/)

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